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2025 in the Baltic capital market: bonds activity hits record highs, while IPO market remains dormant

Yesterday
Bank Financial markets

Kristiāna Janvare, Edmunds Antufjevs, Signet Bankas Investment Banking pārvaldes vadītāji

Bond issuance activity in the Baltic market surged in 2025, reaching record levels in both issuance volume and number of issuers. Meanwhile, equity market activity remained subdued, with only one IPO during the year. In total, Baltic companies issued EUR 6.68 billion in bonds, more than doubling the 2024 level.

The majority of the issued bond volume consisted of international issues by large state-owned companies (e.g., Latvenergo), banks (e.g., Luminor, Citadele, Artea, LHV), and other corporates (e.g., Eleving Group, Akropolis). Among the most significant transactions were Luminor Bank’s three bond issues totaling EUR 950 million, as well as Latvenergo’s EUR 400 million green bond – the largest corporate bond issue ever completed by a Latvian company. Estonia leads the region in corporate bond issuance, with EUR 3.68 billion, reflecting the presence of domestic companies active in international bond markets. Latvia follows with EUR 1.53 billion, ahead of Lithuania at EUR 1.47 billion.

Local bond issuance accelerates with broad regional participation

Excluding international issues from the overall bond statistics provides a clearer picture of local bond market activity among Baltic companies, where the most common issue size ranges between EUR 5 million and EUR 20 million. In 2025, Baltic companies issued EUR 1.37 billion in local bonds, representing a 42% increase compared with 2024. Issuance was relatively evenly distributed across the region, with Lithuania leading at EUR 515 million, followed closely by Latvia at EUR 506 million and Estonia at EUR 356 million.

Latvia records the largest increase in the number of bond issuers

In 2025, a total of 121 companies issued bonds across the Baltics, representing a 16% increase compared with 2024. The sharpest rise in the number of issuers was recorded in Latvia, where 32 companies issued bonds in 2025, up from 21 a year earlier. Lithuania, however, remained the regional leader, with 64 corporates tapping bond market.

Almost 40% of issuers entered the bond market for the first time, while the remaining 60% either refinanced existing bonds or returned to the market after a break,

said Kristiāna Janvare, Head of Investment Banking at Signet Bank.

In terms of sectors, the Baltic bond market is dominated by banks (55%), non-bank lending (14%) and real estate (10%) in terms of issuance volume. However, excluding international issues, the largest volume was issued in non-bank lending (36%), real estate (24%) and services (15%). The most popular sectors in Latvia are non-bank lending (44%) and real estate (25%), in Lithuania real estate (35%) and energy (24%), while in Estonia half of the issue volume is accounted for by non-bank lending.

Public issuance boom and secondary market activity

According to data compiled by Signet Bank, 42 public bond issues were carried out in the Baltics in 2025, attracting a total of EUR 979 million. On average, this amounted to 3.5 public issues per month, with investors in the most active periods often able to choose from four to six offerings simultaneously.

Any active local private investor has likely felt this momentum – in 2025, there was a boom in public bond offerings across the Baltics, with minimum investment thresholds ranging from EUR 100 to EUR 1,000,

comments Edmunds Antufjevs, Head of Investment Banking at Signet Bank.

This heightened issuance activity likely affected secondary market dynamics, as secondary bond trading volumes declined by 35% year on year to EUR 523 million, across 49,400 transactions.

For the third consecutive year, Nasdaq Riga was the most active bond trading venue in 2025, with a turnover of EUR 256 million, followed by Nasdaq Vilnius at EUR 182 million and Nasdaq Tallinn at EUR 85 million.

Looking ahead to the new year, K. Janvare notes:

It appears that 2026 will be a fairly active year for the Latvian bond market. Several companies are approaching the maturity of their existing bonds, which is likely to result in new issuances. In addition, a number of interesting local companies are preparing to debut on the bond market or are weighing whether to enter this year or next. Whether overall activity in 2026 will surpass that of 2025 will largely depend on developments in international bond issuance.

Stock market: a calm year, but positive returns for investors

In 2025, the Baltic stock market remained relatively calm in terms of new share offerings. The only initial public offering (IPO) was by the Estonian company Primostar, which raised EUR 0.4 million, falling short of its EUR 1 million target. Two companies conducted secondary public offerings (SPOs): Estonia’s Nordic Fibreboard raised EUR 2 million, while Latvia’s Indexo completed three secondary offerings, raising a total of EUR 11.21 million.

An unexpected turn of events was Enefit Green’s delisting from the exchange through a share buyback, despite having entered the market successfully with an IPO as recently as 2021,

said E. Antufjevs.

After three years of decline, shares trading activity rebounded strongly, growing 40% year on year to reach EUR 562 million. However, this activity was unevenly distributed: Nasdaq Vilnius accounted for 50% of the turnover, Nasdaq Tallinn for 46%, and Nasdaq Riga for just 4%. While Latvia leads the Baltics in bond trading, it trails its neighbors by more than tenfold in stock market turnover.

Although only one new company entered the stock exchange, Baltic investors had nothing to complain about in terms of returns in 2025 – the OMX Baltic Benchmark index rose by 19%, outperforming comparable indices such as the STOXX Europe 600 (+17%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+18%).

The stock market in 2026 is viewed with cautious optimism, as the “IPO drought” cannot continue indefinitely. Several Baltic companies have been mentioned as potential IPO candidates, most of which are companies owned by state or municipality, however unfortunately this list has not been expanded in recent years with Latvia’s large state-owned companies. Among the most realistic candidates are the Estonian postal service (Omniva), airBaltic, the Latvijas autoceļu uzturetājs and Rīgas namu pārvaldnieks.

We have to start somewhere, and we believe that if these IPOs are successful, they could gradually revive the Latvian and Baltic stock markets,

both experts agree.

If a state or municipally-owned enterprise is not strategically important, does not perform a public function, and there is confidence that the private sector can manage it at least as efficiently – or if large capital investments are required for further development – it is logical to consider the stock exchange as one potential avenue for growth.

Differences in how much of a company the state or municipality retains, if any, are usually determined by the company’s specifics, its development needs, and the nuances of national legislation. Most often, the state seeks to maintain control over strategically important companies, such as those in the energy sector. However, there are many examples abroad – Germany’s Volkswagen and Deutsche Telekom, for instance – where companies operating in free markets have significantly reduced state or municipal ownership or exited public ownership entirely through multiple public share offerings,

comments E. Antufjevs.

K. Janvare continues:

It is important to understand that during an IPO, the company and existing shareholders set the rules of the game – determining both the principles of share distribution and the final allocation to investors. For instance, the prospectus may guarantee each investor a minimum allocation of EUR 2,000-5,000, while also setting a maximum threshold, such as limiting any single investor to no more than 10% of the company’s capital. This ensures a well-considered and balanced investor base, preventing any external party from gaining disproportionate influence. To date, local IPOs have attracted between 2,000 and 10,000 investors, with average investments usually modest – up to EUR 2,000. We expect that medium-sized local IPOs will also feature a balanced investor base, comprising a mix of Baltic private investors and local institutional investors, including investment funds and pension plans.

The development prospects for the Baltic stock market are further supported by last year’s high IPO activity in Scandinavia, particularly in Sweden, which could encourage both investors and potential Baltic issuers.

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